Yesterday was Christmas day, overcast and decidedly manky. Definitely no site visit, regardless of the lousy light conditions.  Today, it is currently pouring with rain; adding to the deluge yesterday, and over night.  Any miniscule thoughts of a possibly site visit today have been soundly abandoned; spurred on by thoughts that Inert et al haven't done very much over the past week.

I have no idea if this lack of activity was, in part, due to the Omicron variant of SARS-2 i.e. Covid-19. Possibly. I doubt much will happen this coming week. I may pay a site visit next Saturday or Sunday. Depends on the weather. Therefore, I wish you all a happy new year.

But spare a thought for the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish. Their loony leaders have imposed unnecessary restrictions due to the perceived threat of SARS-2 omicron variant. The loony leaders are in the thrall of the even loonier, so-called experts.

As both a graduate and postgraduate of Imperial college, and as someone who worked in the world of data science and analytics in my career, I know only too well the limitations, fallibility and outright dodginess of data models. The ultimate examples being: weather forecast, election polling forecasts and financial market forecasting. I have been saying this for over 18 months.

I  was appalled that both the LSTHM and Imperial college teams gave the omicron variant the same lethality as the delta variant, in their models. Despite all the reports coming out of South Africa, which pointed to the opposite. They modellers and so-called experts also ignored the cardinal rule of viruses: a virus has two evolutionary choices - get more lethal and less infectious or get less lethal and more infections.

In presenting best and worst case scenarios, the modellers and so-called experts ignored a fundamental psyche of human nature; we focus on the worst case scenario. It was appalling, and unprofessional for both the LSTHM to publish the results of their  model before it was peer reviewed - talking about 75,000 deaths due to omicron variant, and for Prof Whitty to reference this figure. Seriously! He obviously forgot about having to apologies about  the 4000 daily deaths per day forecast he quoted mid way through 2020. 

Right from day one, reports from South Africa said that omicron variant was way less lethal than delta and that the vaccine offered protection from serious symptoms. This would largely ignored by the so-called experts. Though who did notice it and said restrictions were unnecessary - causing more damage than good, were drowned out by the high priests of lockdown.

When their was growing acceptance that omicron variant was less lethal and that SA hospitals weren't overwhelmed, with mass admissions and deaths, the so-called experts move the goal posts, saying that the UK's demographic was different and that they (the experts) did not know how events would pan out in this country.

Hold the phone. These are experts. They should know or at the very least have a very good insight based on over a hundred years of viral research and experience. They can't take the stance of 'could', 'might', 'maybe', etc, etc, etc and then opt for the default suggestion of lockdown.

Well, until next year. Good luck to you all.

The cryptic title is due to me not really figuring what Inert et al have been up to this week on Manor farm. Matters were not helped by a rather foggy Sunday morning.

As far as I could make out, Inert et al appear to have fiddled with pump station mound. They might have added a bit more to it, they might have flattened in a bit more, smooth out its top.

What they appear to have done is dug a rampart around the base of the mound, much like the hill forts of the iron age.

With a week to go before Christmas, and with all this silliness around the Covid-19 Omicron variant, and with the band playing steadfastly on the S.S. Bumbling Boris as it sinks, I doubt Inert et al will engage in any substantial activity in the next two weeks.

And so it should be. All involved in this enterprise deserve a well earned rest.

I did have a thought about the new, extended Manor lake and whether Inert need to embark on extensive excavating. I realised that with all the spoil Inert have lying around in various heaps, along with the various embankments, perhaps all Inert have to do is raise the surrounding land height to roughly that of the land bridges. This should result in a water depth of roughly two to four metres. Shallow, I grant you, but still deep enough for reed beds (shudder) and marginal vegetation.

Well, unless something drastic happens in the next week, a merry Christmas to you all. I might pop down on Boxing day, partly to have a look see and partly to walk off any feasting from Christmas day.

Well folks, as Boris bumbles his way from cock up to cock up, the doomeister 'experts' on SAGE reiterate their tiresome calls to lockdown the country in the face of the omicron variant non-event, I was hard pushed to work out what restoration took place this last week.

I did figure, last week, that unless Inert did something fairly dramatic (i.e. continue infill of Cormorant lake south) that I would be hard pushed to discover the next phase of restoration. This proved true. I may be slighting Inert et al, but the only piece of work they appear to have done is worked on the banking separating the south footpath (running alongside the Blackwater river) and the south vehicle track.

This banking is normally a riot of vegetation that screens Manor farm from the south footpath throughout most of late spring, summer and early autumn: most annoying. Inert have either scraped the top of the banking free of vegetation or piled a thin layer of soil on top of it.

Other than this piece of work, I can't see what else has happened this week. This is not to say that activity has simply transferred to another part of the site (e.g. Chandlers farm) or that Inert have worked hard on Manor farm but it wasn't obvious to me. However, I have seen this before, where Inert flit from place to place - normally after a sustained piece of work in one area.

Now it is my turn to be a doomeister. I have a feeling that the new, planned, mighty Manor lake, stretching from the pump station to the copse, will not happen. I can't see where all the spoil that is on currently Manor farm will go. The mighty mounds, the embankments have to be flattened, in addition to the lakes being excavated. Shame, the new long Manor lake would provide great views, especially from the viewing are on the spit of land currently sticking out in to the middle of Manor lake (south).

As they say, time will tell.

I did clamber to the top of  the mighty pump station mound, which has shrunk a little over the past few months, for a 360 of the area. Might as well take the opportunity before it is flattened.